Clearly, They Have Shot All of the Copy Editors

"A London Rental Reaches for the Stars: An observatory built for King George III to view a 1769 celestial event has been fully renovated and now seeks a renter at $41,600 a month."
By Ruth Bloomfield on Sept. 5, 2018 at WSJ.com

He was particularly enthused at the prospect of viewing the passage of the planet Venus across the face of the sun—a phenomenon that occurs less than once in a century—and commissioned an observatory from which to view this rare astrological event.

Astrology is the superstitious belief that the course of human events is determined by the locations of the  Sun, the Moon, the planets, and the stars in the sky as observed from the surface of the Earth. Astrologers tell fortunes by means of  charts they create using astronomical theories invented by the ancient Greeks and Romans which are geocentric and not based on modern physics. An "astrological event" is a manifestation of superstition.

 Astronomers are scientists who observe extraterrestrial bodies like the Sun, the planets, and the Stars and use mathematics and physics to deduce the nature of those bodies, Astronomy has existed since ancient times. In the eight century B.C.E., Babylonian astronomers determined when and where the planets would appear in the sky. In the 17th Century, Newton used observations made with newly invented instruments such as the telescope and new forms of mathematics such as the infinitesimal calculus he invented to explain universal gravitation and calculate the orbits of the Moon and the planets with new understanding and accuracy.

The "passage of the planet Venus across the face of the sun", is known among astronomers as a "transit of Venus". One of Newton's contemporaries, Edmund Halley (the comet guy)  proposed that telescopic observations of a transit of Venus could be used to measure the distance between the Earth and the Sun, which would provide a yardstick for measuring the distances and sizes of the Sun and the planets. Haley did that in 1716, but the next transits were not predicted to occur until 1761 and 1769.

Astronomers made careful observations of those astronomical events and determined that the earth lay ~95 million miles from the Sun (the correct figure is ~93 million miles). For the first time, men knew with certainty that the Sun and the planets were very far away, and that they could have no effect on the lives of men. Astrology was shown to be superstitious nonsense.

The True Nature of Twitter

Not Completely Insane

 Two major points of my previous speculations are confirmed.

1. Pompeo is carrying the deal.

2. Denuclearization is a core tenet of the deal.

"Trump says Pompeo meeting with Kim Jong Un went 'very smoothly'" By Louis Nelson on 04/18/2018 at Politico.com.

“Mike Pompeo met with Kim Jong Un in North Korea last week. Meeting went very smoothly and a good relationship was formed,” the president wrote online. “Details of Summit are being worked out now. Denuclearization will be a great thing for World, but also for North Korea!”

More Dots to Connect

Here is one that I knew about but failed to mention in my post of April 7: A train purportedly carrying Kim Jong Un visited Beijing during the last week of March. I would conjecture that the Chinese took Kim to the top of a very high mountain, and showed him all the kingdoms of the world and the glory of them; and made him an offer he could not refuse.

Then, on April 8 it was reported that: "North Korea has told the U.S. that Kim Jong Un is prepared to discuss the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, clearing the way for a summit meeting between the North Korean leader and President Donald Trump ..."

Very interesting.

Rank Speculation About Recent Devlopments

Here is a rumor of a foreign policy development that could have a dramatic domestic political impact.

A couple of weeks ago, I had lunch with a neighbor. He is in the military and has just returned from a tour of duty in Korea. His rumor is that the meeting between Trump and NORK dictator Kim will produce a peace treaty between the parties to the Korean War.

The terms of the treaty will include the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and the withdrawal of American forces from South Korea.

Yes, it is contrary to established policy, but Trump has no commitment to established policy. Further, it would fit Chinese policy.

I am sure that Kim does not want to give up his nukes, but, he will do as the Chinese say. Kim has absolutely no leverage in dealing with China. His guns point south and China is to his north. They can turn off the spigot and Kim’s army will have neither food nor fuel. Against us Kim has the population of Seoul as his hostages.

My concern is that China should pay a price for what would a very big win for them. The price should be backing down on several other issues:

1. China must give up claims that the South China Sea is its territorial waters. It must confirm the judgment of the court in its case with the Philippines.

2. China must agree that it will not use force or the threat of force to alter the political status of Taiwan.

3. China must accept changes in the terms of its trade with the US. Most especially, it must abandon the policy of requiring US companies to give intellectual property rights to Chinese joint venturers as a condition for access to Chinese markets. Other restrictive practices must be stopped as well.

Here is a reading of some not obviously connected recent events that may be pieces of the puzzle.

1. Trump fires McMaster and Tillerson. Pompeo is made SoS. The connection? The departed opposed the deal. Pompeo and Mattis have pushed the deal. They may have set the term sheet.

2. Trump imposes tariffs on US China trade. He may be pushing item 3 of the deal where China had been balky or foot dragging.

3. Trump makes nice to Putin, invites him to White House. The Korean War which will be ended by the deal was fought by the US, but the US was authorized and directed in the matter by the UN. The treaty must be approved by the Security council and Russia has a veto. Putin must be on board.

I am not enamored of Trump. He is not a naive genius at international affairs. He is very ADD. He never studies issues. And, I doubt that he thought this whole thing up. My guess is that the deal was first floated by Xi Jinping. Then, Pompeo and Mattis carried the ball over the objections of Tillerson and McMaster.

This is all rank speculation based on very little. But, if it comes to pass it will be a spectacular development in international affairs, and it will force a reset of the political atmosphere in the US. Large numbers of Americans on the isolationist right, and the pro-communist left would be thrilled. The narrative of an unstable sabre rattling Trump would be destroyed. It would boost Trump’s popularity ratings dramatically, and perhaps reverse the anti-Trump electoral trend of the past few months.

If it does happen, you read it here first.